NATO before the summit: how much does Turkish friendship cost?

That Turkey is the main hurdle for developing more successful Common Security and Defence Policy in the EU there is no doubt. Neither there is about whether it is a committed NATO member and a strong European and US ally at the gate of the Middle East. Until Now.

Attention: Nagorno Karabakh

I regret that it gets harder and harder to write this blog not least because there are so many things to write about.

One of them is something few people tend to discuss these days – the frozen conflicts, and the one in Nagorno Karabakh in particular.

I think it will not be long before international diplomacy focuses its attention in the South Caucasus again. And just like the last time, it may be because of a conflict. Then however, it will be too late to comment and warn. In order not to face the harsh realities of negotiating seize-fire in the middle of a fierce conventional war, one would rather not leave the frozen conflicts on their own. Because they tend to defrost once  in a  while.

Turning a blind eye on Kyrgyzstan ?

Here is an interesting email I got the other day from an event manager in the European  Commission.

Dear Readers,

This week, I will exceptionally leave my journalistic neutrality behind
and advocate the cause of Kyrgyzstan.

След изборите в Ирак: изтегляне към нова война

Изборите в Ирак на 7 Март трябва да са повратната точка за иракската демокрация. Те трябва и да са ключов момент за демонстрация на напредъка в сигурността и последващото изтегляне на Американската армия от страната. Но дали това наистина ще стане ? До каква степен Ирак ще получи “нов старт” и доколко американците ще се оттеглят от Ирак?

Докалдите до момента сочат, че 62% от иракчаните са гласували. Това е малко повече от активността на американските президентски избори миналата година и значително по-малко от 75% по време на кървавите избори през 2005. Всъщност проценитите не са от голямо значние, тъй като друго е по-важно: през изминалите години Ирак се предвижи от сектантски милиции към политически процес, който все по-малко зависи от това кой колко бойци има на разположение.

Victory for Iraqi elections! Nooooot !

Elections in Iraq 7 March are supposed to be a turning point – a fresh start for Iraqi democracy in an improved security environment and withdrawing US military. But is this really the case – how fresh is the start and how withdrawn is the US from Iraq?

Reports say that last Sunday 62% of Iraqis voted. This is in fact slightly above the turnout in US presidential elections last year. Indeed, much lower than the 75% in 2005 among countless terrorists attacks. In fact, percentage here matter little, as there is one important thing to acknowledge: in the past years Iraq has moved from the rule of sectarian militias to a political process less dependent on arms.

There is indeed only one thing to acknowledge, because once we point out that secular non-sectarian leaders are the two most popular in these elections, we inevitably have to move to the next question: US withdrawal. End of January the last US marine left Iraq but there is still significant force in this country. Officials say that last week’s poll is decisive for the planned withdrawal. But how is the US  withdrawal planned? And is it really a withdrawal?

Inconvenient resolution on Armenian genocide stirs US Congress

Who judges superpowers?

Last Week US Congress commission on Foreign Policy voted a resolution condemning the Armenian Genocide in Turkey during the First World War. It is not big news, given that a number of countries have done it and that this has happened before in the US Senate. This time however, the narrow vote (23:22) in the commission headed by former democrat presidential candidate John Kerry comes in a particularly inconvenient moment.

This Week In Afghanistan 29 Jan

Over the last week Afghanistan saw a series of incidents and terrorist attacks targeting civilians, Afghan police and foreign military. This comes only to highlight that the insurgency in the country still poses serious challenge to international reconstruction efforts. Locals and foreigners alike share security risks on a daily basis, which makes business operations costly and challenging.